Battle of Red Cliffs ( 赤 壁 之 战 )

Date : Mar 24th, 2009

Arguably the biggest Chinese-themed blockbuster movie this year is Chibi II (赤 壁 - 决战天下). Part 2 was recently shown during the Chinese New Year in end Jan, 2009. As this was a historical based movie, I was doing some simple research into some background that preludes the famous Battle of Chibi.

At the point of my writing, I have yet to watch Part 2. I am eagerly waiting for the scene on the fire attack on Cao Cao’s chained battleships.

Anyway, let’s see what had happened that builds up to this famous battle in the era of Three Kingdoms. We start off by understanding the situation that led to the division or the disintegration of the preceding dynasty, the Han.

The Han Dynasty (漢朝) 206 BC–220 AD) followed the Qin Dynasty and preceded the Three Kingdoms in China. The Han Dynasty was ruled by the family known as the Liu clan who had peasant origins. The reign of the Han Dynasty, lasting over 400 years, is commonly considered within China to be one of the greatest periods in the history of China. To this day, the ethnic majority of China still refer to themselves as the "Han people" (汉人).

During the Han Dynasty, China officially became a Confucian state and prospered domestically: agriculture, handicrafts and commerce flourished, and the population reached over 56 million people. Paper was invented during this period. The ideas of acupuncture and feng shui were promulgated during this time. Meanwhile, the empire extended its political, cultural influence, and territory over much of Korea, Mongolia, Vietnam, and Central Asia before it finally collapsed under a combination of domestic and external pressures.

Emergence of Han

Within the first twenty-seven months after Qin Dynasty Emperor Qin Shi Huang's (秦始皇) death at Shaqiu (沙球), widespread revolts by peasants, prisoners, soldiers and descendants of the nobles of the six Warring States sprang up all over China. Chen Sheng (陈胜) and Wu Guang (吴广) two in a group of about 900 soldiers assigned to defend against the Xiongnu (匈奴族) they were the leaders of the first rebellion.

Continuous insurgence finally toppled the Qin dynasty in 206 BC. The leader of the insurgents was Xiang Yu (项羽), an outstanding military commander without political expertise, who divided the country into 19 feudal states to his own satisfaction.

The ensuing war among those states signified the five years of Chu- Han Wars (楚汉之战) with Liu Bang (刘帮) the first emperor of the Han Dynasty, as the eventual winner with the help of Zhang Liang (张良) and Han Xin (韩信).

Initially, "Han" (the principality as created by Xiang Yu's division) consisted merely of modern Sichuan, Chongqing, and southern Shaanxi and was a minor humble principality, but eventually grew into an empire; the Han Dynasty was named after the principality, which was itself named after Hanzhong (漢中) - modern southern Shaanxi, the region centering the modern city of Hanzhong.

The beginning of the Han Dynasty can be dated either from 206 BC when the Qin dynasty crumbled and the Principality of Han was established or 202 BC when Xiang Yu committed suicide. See Fig. 1 for the area ruled under the Han Dynasty.

The Collapse of Han and the Rise of Cao Cao

The series of events leading to the collapse of dynastic power and the rise of Cáo Cāo are extremely complex. The death of Emperor Ling in May 189 led to an unstable regency under General-in-chief He Jin and renewed rivalry between the factions of the eunuchs and regular civil bureaucracy. Following the assassination of He Jin, his chief ally the Colonel-Lieutenant of Retainers Yuan Shao (袁绍) led a massacre of the eunuchs in the imperial palaces in Luoyang (洛阳).

This event prompted the invitation of frontier general Dong Zhuo (董卓) to enter Luoyang from the northwest boundary of China. At the time China faced the powerful barbarians of Qiang tribe to the northwest, and thus Dong Zhuo controlled a large army with elite training. When he brought the army to Luoyang, he was able to easily overpower the existing armies of both sides and took control of the imperial court, ushering in a period of civil war across China.

Dong Zhuo then manipulated the succession so that the future Emperor Xian could take the throne in lieu of his elder half-brother. Dong Zhuo, while ambitious, genuinely wished for a more capable emperor. Dong Zhuo, confident in his success, was in return, slained by his own adopted son, Lü Bu (吕布). Lü Bu was then, attacked by Dong Zhuo's supporters. Lu fled to Zhang Yang, a northern warlord, and remained with him for a time before briefly joining Yuan Shao, but it was clear that Lü Bu was far too independent to serve another.

In August 195, Emperor Xian fled Chang'an (长安 – the capital city) due to revolt instability and made a year long hazardous journey eastwards. By 196, he was received by Cao Cao at Luoyang. This is an extremely important move for Cao Cao with the suggestion from his primary advisor, Xun Yu, commenting that by supporting the authentic Emperor, Cao Cao would have the formal legal authority to control the other warlords and force them to comply in order to restore the Han dynasty. At this point, Cao Cao became the Prime Minister of the Han court and also the de-facto ruler.

Brief Introduction of the Three Kingdoms

The Three Kingdoms period (三國) is a period in the history of China, part of an era of disunity called the Six Dynasties following immediately the loss of de facto power of the Han Dynasty emperors. In a strict academic sense it refers to the period between the foundation of the Wei in 220 and the conquest of the Wu by the Jin Dynasty in 280. However, many Chinese historians and laymen extend the starting point of this period back to the uprising of the Yellow Turbans in 184.

The three kingdoms were Wèi (魏), Shu (蜀), and Wú (吳). To help further distinguish these states from other historical Chinese states of the same name, historians add a relevant character: Wei is also known as Cáo Wèi (曹魏), Shu is also known as Shǔ Hàn (蜀漢), and Wu is also known as Dōng Wú or Eastern Wu (東吳). The term Three Kingdoms itself is somewhat of a mistranslation, since each state was eventually headed not by kings, but by an emperor who claimed legitimate succession from the Han Dynasty. Although the translation Three Empires is more contextually accurate, the term Three Kingdoms has become standard among sinologists.

The earlier, "unofficial" part of the period, from 190 to 220, was marked by chaotic infighting between warlords in various parts of China. The middle part of the period, from 220 and 263, was marked by a more militarily stable arrangement between three rival states, Cao Wei, Shu Han, and Eastern Wu. The later part of this period was marked by the collapse of the tripartite situation: first the destruction of Shu by Wei (263), then the overthrow of Wei by the Jin Dynasty (265), and the destruction of Wu by Jin (280).

Although relatively short, this historical period has been greatly romanticised in the cultures of China, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam. It has been celebrated and popularised in operas, folk stories, novels and in more recent times, films, television serials, and video games. The best known of these is undoubtedly the Romance of the Three Kingdoms (三国演义) a fictional account of the period which draws heavily on history.



Battle of Red Cliffs ( 赤 壁 之 战 )

During the confrontation of the Three Kingdoms (三国) in China , Battle of Red Cliffs (赤壁之战) acted as a decisive battle, which took place in the winter of 208 between the allied forces of the southern warlords (Liu Bei, 刘备 & Sun Quan 孙权) , and the northern warlord, Cao Cao (曹操) .

Liu and Sun successfully frustrated Cao's effort to conquer the land south of the Yangtze River and reunify China . Despite being one of the most famous battles of Chinese history, descriptions of the battle differ widely on details ; in fact, even the place of battle is still fiercely debated.

By 208, the Duke of Wei (魏), Cao Cao had controlled all of the North China Plain. He completed a successful campaign against the Wuhuan (乌桓) in the winter of 207, thus securing his northern frontier. Almost immediately afterward, his army turned south in the autumn of 208, aiming to eliminate his main southern rivals swiftly. Meanwhile, Liu Biao (刘表) , Governor of Jing province (荆洲), died in that year and his successor meekly surrendered.

Liu Bei, then at garrison at Fan (襄樊) , quickly fled south with a large refugee population following him. He was pursued by Cao Cao's elite cavalry, and was surrounded at the Battle of Changban (长坂之战) – See Fig. 2. Liu further fled east to Xiakou, where he liaised with Sun Quan's emissary Lu Su. Liu's main advisor Zhuge Liang was sent down the Yangtze to negotiate a mutual front against Cao Cao with the state of Wu. Zhuge Liang (诸葛亮)'s eloquence and Wu's chief commander, Zhou Yu's (周瑜) support finally persuaded the King of Wu, Sun Quan, to agree on the alliance against the northerners.

Meanwhile Cao Cao had captured the strategic centre and military depot of Jiangling (江凌), and harbored his massive fleet there. The combined Sun-Liu force sailed upstream to Red Cliffs, where they encountered Cao Cao's courier force. After a mild skirmish, both sides temporarily ceased activity - with Cao camped northern of the Yangtze River and the allies in the south. Cao Cao boasted a troop of 150,000 men, this was probably true as there is no evidence to suggest some other figure, he also had a sizeable cavalry and naval division. Zhou Yu had around 30,000 marines whilst the exiled Liu Bei managed around 20,000.

The decisive blow to Cao came shortly afterwards, though the sources vary on whether Liu or Sun struck it. The most detailed account comes from the biography of Zhou Yu, which details how the Sun commander Huang Gai (黄盖) planned an attack on Cao Cao with fireships.

The source tells of the devastation wrought in the Cao’s camp by the fires. In any case, a general order of retreat was given to Cao's troop, and it is likely that the northerners destroyed a number of their own ships during the retreat. There are hints that the northerners were at the time already plagued by disease and low morale.

Many other sources indicate that a combination of Wei's (魏国) underestimation and Shu's (蜀国) deception resulted in the allies' victory in the Battle of Red Cliffs. Cao Cao's generals and soldiers were mostly from cavalry and infantry, and almost none had any experience in battles on the water. Immersed in his victory over Wuhuan, Cao Cao simply assumed that superiority in number would eventually defeat the Wu (吴国) and Shu navy (the ratio of the naval forces on the two sides are estimated as 120,000 to 50,000). He converted his massive infantry and cavalry army into a marine corps and a navy, which was his first tactical mistake. Even with only a few days of drills before the battle, Cao Cao's troop was already decimated by sea-sickness and lack of experience in naval battles and many of his "fresh" crew could not even swim. Tropical diseases to which southerners had long been immuned, also plagued the soldiers of the north, and had spread wildly in Cao Cao's camps.

It was under such situation that Pang Tong (庞统) , a well-known strategist and peer of Zhuge Liang who is loyal to Shu, infiltrated into Cao Cao's army as a military adviser. Under the advice of Zhuge Liang, he recommended Cao Cao to chain his entire fleet together with strong iron chains to "prevent sea-sickness and disease". Cao Cao, who was famous for his suspicion, believed in Pang Tong, since he was extremely worried that his troop would be debilitated by the unfamiliar environment.

Within days, sea-sickness was drastically decreased, as the ships would rock less when chained together. Cao Cao then embraced this plan even more whole-heartedly. The strategy, dubbed "Together-Chained-Tactic" (连缳计) was actually devised by Zhuge Liang and Zhou Yu, and this seemingly beneficial act would eventually cause the debacle of his fleet.

At the same time, Zhuge Liang calculated that at this time of the year, winds would only blow in the direction of North-West (which was called a South-eastern wind). Cao Cao's fleet, which was anchored in the North-West relative to Shu's and Wu's camps, was then thoroughly exposed to a fire attack. Zhuge Liang betted on this South-eastern wind to even out the chances of the Wu and Shu's inferior forces.

On the eve of the battle, Cao Cao finally realized that the South-eastern wind disrupted his entire fleet movement, as his fleet could not advance against a wind blowing straight towards it. A general retreat order was issued, but as his fleet was chained tightly to one and another, panic broke out and prevented the fleet from retreating effectively. The entire fleet of 2,000 was then trapped in the middle of the Yangtze river with mobility that is next to zero.

In a desperate effort, Cao Cao called for an attack against the allied force. However, the arrows from Cao Cao's fleet could not reach the Wu and Shu's fleets, as the South-eastern wind blew the arrows away from their designated targets. Cao Cao's strategies of overwhelming the Shu-Wu navies with boarding parties had failed as soon as the fleet was immobilized. The Shu-Wu forces, aided by the wind, launched arrows with fire tips at the hapless warships of Cao Cao. A combination of volleys of "fire arrows" and attacks of the "fire ships" led by Huang Gai eventually destroyed the entire 2,000 warships of Cao Cao. The survivors of the Wei Navy had to row back to the northern shores in small boats, with interception of Shu-Wu marines and skirmishers all along the way-See Fig. 3

As his force fell back in disorder, Cao Cao was chased by Liu Bei's troops along the way. Ambushes set by Huang Zhong (黄忠) , Zhao Yun (赵云) , and Zhang Fei (张飞) continued to break down Cao Cao's force until Huarong Path (华容道) , where he faced the legendary Shu general Guan Yu (关羽) .

According to the legend, Guan Yu, moved by Cao Cao's ragness and weary troops, recalled Cao Cao's kind treatment to him at the Battle of Guandu when Cao Cao sheltered Guan Yu; so he allowed Cao Cao to escape with his remnant troop of 27 men. The legend also alleged that Zhuge Liang divined that Guan Yu would let Cao Cao off beforehand; but in order to show discipline, he still pretended being infuriated by Guan Yu's act and almost sentenced Guan Yu to death for not obeying orders, but was stopped by Liu Bei, the sworn brother of Guan Yu.

By the end of 209, the command Cao Cao had established at Jiangling fell to Zhou Yu. Liu Bei, on the other hand, had set up his own kingdom by taking over the four commanderies south of the Yangzi River . He also occupied Cao Cao's Jingzhou, a strategic fortress on the Chang Jiang River (长江) that Wu claimed itself. Jingzhou's location gave Liu Bei virtually unlimited access to the passage into Shu, important waterways into Wu, and dominion of the southern Yangtze river. According to the Shu-Wu treaty however, Jingzhou belonged to Wu, and hence Sun Quan was extremely bitter over this act of betrayal by Liu Bei, and Shu-Wu ties were officially severed. As a result, Shu and Wu would be warring over Jingzhou for the next 20 years. Wei, under Cao Cao's control, was still recuperating from the losses suffered in the Battle of Chibi, and therefore did not have enough resource to defend or retake Jingzhou from its southern rivals.

It is later claimed by some scholars that Zhuge Liang had planned this battle all along, calculating that Sun Quan's Wu force would be most weakened after the Battle of Chibi so that Shu could take the advantage of expanding its territory. Zhuge Liang gave the fortress of Jingzhou to Guan Yu, who maintained and guarded it until his death in 219.

Never again would Cao Cao command such a large fleet as he had at Jiangling nor similar opportunity to destroy his southern rivals would again present itself. Therefore, the Battle of Red Cliffs and the capture of Jingzhou confirmed the separation of Southern China from the northern Yellow River valley heartland. The battle not only formally established the division of China to the Three Kingdoms, but also foreshadowed the north-south hostility of the later centuries – See Fig.4 for the areas governed by each of the 3 Kingdoms.

Alright, so much for History 101. I am looking forward to watching Part 2 of the series. Hopefully, it is more exciting than Part 1.

What Goes Up Must Come Down

Table 1 : Newtonian Physics w.r.t the stock market

Date : Mar 14th, 2009

Of course, the reverse should be true also ….. What Comes Down Must Also Go Up !

On planet Earth, where Law of Physics governs how the natural world works ….. from electro-magnetic field due to Earth’s rotation, gravity, motions, electronics …. you name it, the Law of Physics has a part in it.

Now, let’s take a look at one of the most famous Laws in Physics ……..the Newton’s Law of Motion.

A simple definition as follows :

Newton's laws of motion are three physical laws that form the basis for classical mechanics, directly relating the forces acting on a body to the motion of the body. They were first compiled by Sir Isaac Newton in his work Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica, first published on July 5, 1687. Newton used them to explain and investigate the motion of many physical objects and systems.For example, in the third volume of the text, Newton showed that these laws of motion, combined with his law of universal gravitation, explained Kepler's laws of planetary motion.

1) First law
There exists a set of inertial reference frames relative to which all particles with no net force acting on them will move without change in their velocity. This law is often simplified as "A body persists its state of rest or of uniform motion unless acted upon by an external unbalanced force." Newton's first law is often referred to as the law of inertia. So in other words "every object in motion will stay in motion until acted upon by an outside force."

2) Second law
Observed from an inertial reference frame, the net force on a particle of constant mass is proportional to the time rate of change of its linear momentum: F = d(mv)/dt. This law is often stated as, "Force equals mass times acceleration (F = ma)": the net force on an object is equal to the mass of the object multiplied by its acceleration.

3) Third law
Whenever a particle A exerts a force on another particle B, B simultaneously exerts a force on A with the same magnitude in the opposite direction. The strong form of the law further postulates that these two forces act along the same line. This law is often simplified into the sentence, "To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction." Or in other words, "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction."

Let’s see if this also applies to our stock market, the barometer of the state of economies of the country …. at least the perceived barometer for most people.

I tried applying these 3 Laws into the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trend as illustrated in Table 1 above.

1st Law in Action :

From mid-2007 to mid-2008, with no external net force to jerk the market, the DJIA averages 13,000 pts :

... every object (the DJIA indice) in motion will stay in motion until acted upon by an outside force."

2nd Law in Action :

An external net force jerk the market in the form of the sub-prime mortgage crunch.

As we moved towards 4Q'08, more and more external net force sets in, one after another in a "tsunami-like" wave.

Giant US Corporations fells like dominoes ... Lehmans, AIG, Citigroup, Washington Mutual (WaMu), Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac .... the lists goes on (increasing the mass, 'm')

As the tsunami gathers momentum, 'a' .... the Force, F increases exponentially.

Unfortunately, the 'F' in this case is a "negative" force that represents broad panic selling.

By 1Q'09, the Dow lost 50% of its market capitalization.

3rd Law in Action :

Now, the stock market is a trading place. For trading to happen, there must be sellers & buyers, and prices are determined via the the Demand & Supply rules.

Hence, the 3rd Law : for every action (Selling) there is an equal and opposite reaction (Buying)" ... however much the sellers want to sell, there will be buyers taking them up.

There you have it .....the stock market also behaves like any other natural forces of the Earth. It conforms to the Law of Physics. Now, the trillion $ question is ..... who are these people/institutions that are buying up in the current extreme bearish sentiments ? ...and why are they doing it ?

A hidden lesson to be learnt here ?

Remember ... What Comes Down Must Also Go Up ! .... if you truly believe in the 3 Laws of Motion.

I was joking with a colleague the other day. He is a Planning guy and naturally, he's concerned with production outputs. Recalling this, I laughed when he coined the term "What Goes In Must Come Out".